Original-Research: MLP SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu MLP SE

Unternehmen: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 19.02.2024
Kursziel: 11.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Case fully intact despite PW; chg.

Topic: MLP released a profit warning and is now expecting an FY'23 EBIT of € 71m, thus missing the guidance of € 75-85m due to € 4m of goodwill impairments in the real estate business.

Below market expectations: Adjusting for the impairment, the guidance range should have been met at the lower end € 75m, indicating a € 5m miss vs our estimate of € 80m(eCons: € 77m). This shoud mainly stem from lower than expected sales in Q4, while the cost base should have remained unchangend.

Case remains fully intact for FY'24e and beyond: While the real estate business has been MLP's problem child, this impairment has been anticipated by the market, however at a smaller extent. Nevertheless, this does not impact our view on FY'24e, where we expect EBIT to reach € 90m (+27% yoy; eCons: € 88m), based on 1) no further downside from real estate, 2) a continuously strong banking business as well as 3) ongoing synergies across MLP's manifold segments while potential performance fees (not included in our estimates) could serve as a cherry on top. Moreover, management feels confident about their EBIT growth path, as they reaffirmed the mid-term guidance of € 100-110m of EBIT by FY'25e (eNuW: € 95m; eCons: € 96m).

FY'23 dividend announced: Given the non-cash relevenat impairment as well as the solid net cash position of € 2.26 per share (as of 9M'23) MLP announced to keep the dividend stable at € 0.30 per share (5.5% dividend yield), despite slightly lower EPS.

Attractive risk/reward profile: While the bad news should now remain tothe past, we look optimistically into FY'24e (see 8-pager from 25th January 2024). The risk/reward profile looks attractive and the stock seems to be downside protected by MLP's parts (FERI: € 5.12; net cash: € 2.27; MLP ex FERI: € 5.52; all per share), witnessed by the shares currently trade on the same level from before the profit warning. Moreover, valuation looks unjustified, given a 21% FCFY'24e, a 58% discount to its parts and historically low multiples albeit improvements in underlying profitability (see p. 2).

Hence, we confirm our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 11.00, based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28917.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.