12.11.2020 MagForce AG DE000A0HGQF5
Original-Research: MagForce AG (von GBC AG): Buy
Original-Research: MagForce AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu MagForce AG
Unternehmen: MagForce AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Significant treatment revenues generated for the first time, roll-out in Europe and Germany to be continued; Approval for prostate treatment expected in 2021
In the first six months of 2020, MagForce AG treated a significant number of glioblastoma patients for the first time. By treating 11 patients in Germany and six patients in Poland, the company garnered treatment revenues of EUR 0.38 million (previous year: EUR 0.03 million). Although the revenue level is still low, which with an EBIT of EUR -3.42 million (previous year: EUR -3.61 million) means an unchanged negative earnings level, the first half of 2020 could mark the beginning of a high growth dynamic in the number of treatments. The basis for this has been laid by the expansion strategy implemented in previous reporting periods. In April 2019, the first NanoActivator device was installed in Poland, a region from which MagForce AG had received an above-average number of enquiries. Another treatment device was also installed in Germany in Zwickau, at the Paracelsus Clinic. From November 2020, the Hufeland Clinic in Mühlhausen will be the third location in Germany.
Parallel to the technology roll-out in Poland and Germany, MagForce AG has successfully continued a clinical study for approval for the treatment of prostate cancer in the USA. After successfully completing patient recruitment for the first stage of the study in August 2019, MagForce AG received approval from the FDA for the second stage in April 2020. In the first stage, only minimal treatment-related side effects were observed. The multi-stage, single-arm study is currently being conducted due to COVID-19 only at a MagForce-owned treatment centre in the USA. Since MagForce AG has established a streamlined procedure in which the treatment of a patient can be completed within one day, an accelerated study duration can be assumed. The treatments of the next and final stage will then take place in three MagForce-owned treatment centres. We expect approval in the second half of 2021 and the first significant sales revenues from the 2022 financial year onwards.
Under the agreement with the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the agreed convertible bond program with Yorkville, MagForce AG can raise a substantial amount of capital. Of the agreed EIB volume of EUR35 million, EUR13 million had been drawn down as of the balance sheet date. As of June 30, 2020, convertible bonds amounting to EUR2.5 million had been issued under the Yorkville agreement, which has a total volume of EUR15 million.
We expect the growth momentum in commercial glioblastoma treatment to continue, with strong revenue growth from 2022 onwards in prostate cancer patients. In 2022, we expect the EBITDA break-even point to be reached, and from 2023 onwards, we also expect to break even at the level of after-tax earnings.
As part of the DCF valuation model, we have determined a fair value per share of EUR11.00 (previously: EUR13.50). The reduction in the price target is due, on the one hand, to the time lag in sales revenues in both indication areas. On the other hand, we have adopted a somewhat more conservative approach to medium-to-long-term sales expectations and assume a lower growth dynamic. We continue to assign the BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/21826.pdf
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