27.05.2020 Aves One AG DE000A168114
Original-Research: Aves One AG (von GBC AG): Buy
Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Very well positioned in the current corona crisis 2020 results at least at previous year's level
Aves One AG has completed a very successful financial year 2019 and is well positioned to successfully navigate through the Corona crisis. In the 2019 financial year, revenues increased by 50.3% to €116.78 million (previous year: €77.68 million) and EBITDA improved disproportionately by 62.1% to €84.60 million (previous year: €52.19 million). This dynamic sales growth was achieved by the expansion of assets under management in the previous year and in the year before that. Their asset portfolio increased by 12.6% to € 924.33 million (previous year: € 820.93 million) and the corresponding gross yield rose to 12.6% (previous year: 9.5%). A very high occupancy rate and a good rental yield also contributed to the increase in revenues.
The disproportionately high improvement in earnings was achieved thanks to their very stable cost structure. The company has always relied on the lean-management approach and high cost discipline. A significant improvement was also achieved on the net level (adjusted for non-cash currency effects), which rose by 130.7% to € 8.55 million (previous year: € 3.71 million).
The corona crisis will have a significant impact on world trade and the global economy. This will also affect Aves One, but we believe that the company is very well positioned for the crisis. This is particularly due to the fact that Aves One AG, as a portfolio holder of long-lived logistics assets, has mostly concluded long-term rental contracts and should therefore be able to generate high occupancy rates with reliable cash flows in the short term. Nevertheless, there should be a partial decline in demand, which should have an impact on rental rates. As guidance, the company has announced sales and EBITDA at least at the previous year's level. In our opinion, this should be feasible even without asset purchases, as the assets acquired in the fiscal year 2019 should already lead to a higher revenue base. In addition, the rail sector in particular should be used for essential supplies and is better suited in the crisis period to transport goods across borders than, for example, numerous trucks are.
Specifically, we assume that revenues in the current financial year 2020 will increase slightly by 2.0% to € 119.15 million (previous year: € 116.78 million); followed by a gradual increase in the rate of growth to 7.3% (€ 127.87 million) in 2021, and to 11.7% (€ 142.8 million) in 2022. The forecast depends largely on the corona crisis and therefore involves a certain degree of uncertainty. Should the situation change significantly again, we would adjust our estimates accordingly. In our opinion, there should also be disproportionately large improvements in earnings in line with the revenue increases. Consequently, we expect EBITDA of € 86.44 million (previous year: € 84.60 million) for the current financial year 2020 and € 93.49 million in 2021 and € 105.29 million in 2022.
Based on our DCF model, we have determined a target price of € 13.60 and assign a BUY rating. This means we are maintaining our previous price target. Our slightly lower forecast is compensated for by the roll-over effect.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/20913.pdf
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Logistik/Verkehr , A16811 , AVES , XETR:AVES