06.12.2019 Aves One AG DE000A168114
Original-Research: Aves One AG (von GBC AG): BUY
Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
9 Monthly Figures 2019 - Aves One continues its good business development. Slight adjustment of the forecast and our price target to € 13.60 (previously: € 13.87). Rating: Buy.
In the first nine months of 2019, Aves One AG generated revenues of € 85.82 million (previous year: € 50.41 million). The main revenue driver is the rail segment with a revenue contribution of € 55.61 million (previous year: € 23.07 million) compared with € 27.72 million in the container segment (previous year: € 23.52 million). The reason for the growth in turnover was a significant increase in the asset portfolio. The EBITDA again improved disproportionately by 80.4% to € 63.55 million (previous year: € 35.22 million), resulting in an EBITDA margin improvement from 69.9% to 74.1%. This demonstrates the scalability of their lean management approach and high utilization of assets. Adjusted for non-cash exchange rate effects (accounting for the functional currency in the container segment), EBT amounted to € 8.92 million (previous year: € 2.61 million).
With the publication of the nine-month figures, the guidance was confirmed with revenues of at least € 110 million and EBITDA of more than € 80 million. We currently assess the company's business development as very good, but we assume that the trade dispute between the USA and China will have a slight impact on the container market. This should be particularly reflected in the area of used containers, which are constantly being sold by Aves One. A corresponding development can already be seen in the Q3 figures and should also be found in the Q4 results. As a result of this effect, we have slightly adjusted our forecast and now expect EBT before currency effects of € 11.07 million (previously: € 11.54 million).
Overall, it is also evident that the investment focus is also increasingly on the rail segment. In our opinion, the rail-to-container ratio of assets could be above the ratio of 75%/25% in the future. This development would also reduce further volatility in business development in the context of the current geopolitical situation. We are highly confident that further growth will come from additional assets and further optimization of rents and capacity utilization. The high-margin rail segment should play an even more important role in the future.
The company continues to review various debt and equity financing options, which could result in positive valuation adjustments. Based on our DCF model, we have calculated a fair value of € 13.60 per share (previously: € 13.87) and confirm our Buy rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/19699.pdf
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Logistik/Verkehr , A16811 , AVES , XETR:AVES