11.06.2019 Aves One AG DE000A168114
Original-Research: Aves One AG (von GBC AG): BUY
Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
The strong growth should continue. Further margin improvements should be achieved as a result of the scalable business model.
In financial year 2018, Aves One AG increased its revenue significantly and also achieved a disproportionate improvement in earnings. We assume that this trend will continue in the future. In financial year 2018, revenue increased by 45.4% to EUR 77.68 million (previous year: EUR 53.43 million). The key factors for this revenue growth were further assets under management (AUM) acquired in 2017 and in 2018. In particular, the NACCO transaction in the third quarter of 2018 led to a significant increase in AUM. Overall, AUM increased by 83.1% in financial year 2018 to EUR 820.93 million (previous year: EUR 448.46 million). Due to the large NACCO transaction, the company also brought the original plan for EUR 1 billion AuM forward from 2020 to 2019.
A disproportionate improvement in earnings was achieved as a result of strict cost discipline and a lean management approach. EBITDA increased by 79.3% to EUR 52.19 million (previous year: EUR 29.11 million) leading to an improvement in the margin from 54.5% (2017) to 67.2% (2018). In particular, the cost of materials ratio increased again, because of the further increase in capacity utilisation. As a whole, a net profit adjusted for non-cash FX effects of EUR 3.66 million was achieved (previous year: EUR -13.35 million).
Guidance for the 2019 financial year is based on revenue of at least EUR 110 million, EBITDA of at least EUR 80 million and assets under management of at least EUR 1 billion. We consider this guidance to be conservative and assume AuM of EUR 1.03 billion and forecast additional revenue amounting to EUR 118.10 million in 2019. We assume that the focus will continue to be on the Rail segment and that the Container segment will be expanded opportunistically. In particular, the NACCO transaction is expected to contribute to revenue for the entire financial year 2019. In the Container segment, we expect a slight decline in capacity utilisation, but this should be more than compensated by rising lease prices. For the Rail segment, we are assuming that the balanced portfolio will be expanded further. In this way, in the 2018 financial year an extremely cyclically independent segment was built up by the approx. 20% holding in rail tank cars, whereas the company can participate in the higher growth performance in, for example, the Intermodal segment.
Strict cost discipline and a lean management approach should result in disproportionately improved earnings with increasing revenue. We expect EBITDA to increase by 65.0% to EUR 86.13 million (previous year: EUR 52.19 million), a margin improvement from 67.2% (2017) to 72.9% (2018). In our opinion, average financing costs should continue to decline as the Rail segment will generally see more favourable conditions. We are therefore forecasting a net profit of EUR 10.96 million in 2019, which represents a very high net margin of 9.3%.
Through the scalable business model, further margin improvements should be achieved in the medium term. We are currently anticipating a continuation of the high growth momentum and, against the backdrop of the higher forecast level, we have issued a stock price target of EUR 12.80 (so far: EUR 12.10) so we therefore give this a BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/18259.pdf
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Logistik/Verkehr , A16811 , AVES , XETR:AVES